Contra ACT On The Extinction Tournament
In my last blog post, I discussed participating in a Forecasting Tournament through the University of Pennsylvania. One of the top rationalist blogs, Astral Codex Ten (ACT) wrote a post discussing findings from the tournament, specifically focusing on the issue of artificial intelligence (AI). The forecasting tournament focused on existential risks and asked about the…
Canadian Economic Expectations: Moderation, News, and Animal Spirits
Keenan Viney Abstract: Expectations play a vital role in the current approach to macroeconomic modeling. By studying the role of expectations directly, it is possible to gain insight into how the economy aggregates and utilizes information. This paper examines whether or not expectations themselves can drive real output. The results suggest that in Canada, expectations…
Information and Policy in the 2008 Financial Crisis: A model of the overnight lending market
Keenan Viney Introduction The deep recession of 2008 was touched off by financial crisis. In the years before the credit crunch, banks across the globe had been engineering and trading new types of financial derivatives. One of these new derivatives was the Credit Default Swap (CDS). Put simply, these were insurance policies against default on…
Policy Report on “Regional Economic Shocks and Migration” by Andre Bernard (2011)
Keenan Viney Abstract “Regional Economic Shocks and Migration” by Andre Bernard investigates the economic factors that induce migration across regions. Rather than studying migration across provinces, this paper uses the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD) which has individual data across census agglomerations (CAs) and census metropolitan areas (CMAs). Theory suggests that the decision to migrate is…
The Harmonized Sales Tax in British Columbia – Analysis in Maple
Keenan Viney Introduction With the implementation and subsequent repeal of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) in British Columbia, the debate surrounding value-added taxes is far from settled. British Columbia implemented the HST in 2010 and proponents claimed that the new tax would be more efficient than the old Provincial Sales Tax (PST). The HST would…
Well Classification using Extreme Gradient Boosting for Re-Claimed 2019 Untapped Datathon
Keenan Viney I recently participated in the 2019 reClaim Data Competition: Alberta’s Aging Oil and Gas Infrastructure. There were two parts to this competition, predicting the initial production of oil wells based on there characteristics and, presented here, classifying the status of oil wells based on their characteristics. Below, I have included the script that…
Neo-Wicksellian Model and Central Bank Policy in GAMs: Three lessons from the 2008 recession
Keenan Viney Introduction The Great Depression happened at a time when relatively little was understood about the interface between financial markets and the macro-economy functioned. The result was a poor monetary policy response which served to prolong and deepen the downturn. Bernanke’s (2004) speech highlights that central bankers paradoxically constricted the money supply and politicians…
Dynamics of the Japanese Real Estate Bubble
Keenan Viney One of the most iconic asset price bubbles in recent history was experienced by Japan during the 1980s. Several factors contributed to the bubble, but the main focus of this paper will be the effects on real estate. During the bubble, the housing prices of Japan became disconnected from rental prices. In this…
Referee Report: “Do matching frictions explain unemployment? Not in Bad Times?” by Pascal Michaillat (2012)
Keenan Viney “Do matching frictions explain unemployment? Not in Bad Times?” by Pascal Michaillat adds to the standard search theoretic model in order to better match the empirical facts of unemployment during recessions. Previous search models of unemployment were able to show that the costs associated with matching hiring firms to unemployed workers were significant…
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